During the past sixty years, most economic, market, and interest rate cycles have lasted from two to five years, peak-to-peak. Rarely have any of the cycle-tracking market indices moved in tandem, and none of the cycles are considered to be particularly predictable.
Individual securities (the stuff that indices are made of) complicate things significantly by having even less predictable cycles of their own. This generally uncertain atmosphere is the very nature of the financial markets. If investors could come to grips with the non-calendar, cyclical, nature of markets, it is likely that they could improve their investment performance considerably.
In spite of decades of irrefutable evidence to the contrary, Wall Street has convinced most investors and far too many financial professionals that the calendar year is somehow investment relevant. Simple, yes; tax-code friendly, perhaps; but investment realistic— not.
Too many experts have abandoned the financial world’s fascinating cyclical undulations for the simplicity of the planet’s annual orbit around the sun. It’s time for a change in direction— one that doesn’t ignore the realities of the investment markets. It’s time to get back on our “hogs”, and ride!
Regardless of direction, all cyclical movements have proven to be excellent investment opportunities for Market Cycle Investment Management (MCIM) navigators. The MCIM Program uses a time-proven methodology that befriends market and interest rate cycles by using strategies that most often should produce:
* Higher market value lows during market downturns.
* Moves to cash before corrections take over from rallies.
* Maintenance of planned income during financial crises.
* Faster movement to new market value highs.
* Steady growth in “working capital” in all market environments.
* Annual growth of realized “base income” in all portfolios.
* No major disappearing (unrealized) profits.
* Much better than average peak-to-peak market value numbers.
* Auto pilot maintenance of asset allocation structure.
* Reduction of analysis paralysis, appreciation of both rallies and corrections, and love of market volatility.
The past twelve years have included two major market cycles and one significant economic crisis. Email me to see how well Market Cycle Investment Management accounts fared during this interesting segment of financial history. Read “Brainwashing the American Investor” to appreciate the MCIM program— in operation since 1970.
All investors should become familiar with Market Cycle Investment Management accounts and the strategies they employ to keep portfolios on track from start up to retirement. As a family evolves over time, separately managed, “life cycle” friendly, portfolios will become necessary. For example:
Group One -Taxable income and Investment Grade Value Stock (IGVSI) portfolios for tax deferred accounts
* 70% IGVSI Equities and 30% Taxable CEFs
* 50% IGVSI Equities and 50% Taxable CEFs
* 30% IGVSI Equities and 70% Taxable CEFs
Group Two – Tax free income and Investment Grade Value Stock (IGVSI) portfolios for taxable accounts
* 70% IGVSI Equities and 30% Tax Free CEFs
* 50% IGVSI Equities and 50% Tax Free CEFs
* 30% IGVSI Equities and 70% Tax Free CEFs
Group Three – Tax managed portfolios, asset allocated as in Group Two, for taxable accounts.
Notes: (1) Group One and Two portfolios would be managed in accordance with The Working Capital Model, as documented profusely in the books and articles of Investment Manager Steve Selengut. (2) Group Three portfolios would be managed similarly; however, tax loss selling will be used annually to offset a significant portion of trading gains.
Reasonable Expectations: (1) Portfolios should lose less market value during market corrections and recover to new highs more quickly. (2) Profit taking during rallies, regular cash flow, and strict stock purchase rules should produce quicker recoveries. (3) Income production from equities, combined with a significant income securities bucket, assure annual increases in “base income” levels.
Market Cycle Investment Management replaces the racetrack mentality that runs today’s investment performance evaluation methodologies with a calmer, more cerebral, strategy.
By looking at things cyclically, and analytically, instead of celestially and emotionally, we allow our strategy to prove itself over a reasonable period of time— as it has since 1970.
If the investment strategy makes sense in the long run, why knock yourself out in months, quarters, and years? Pick the MCIM program or programs that suit you best today and let them work you through the cycles the investment gods are preparing for your future.
Attend a seminar, adopt the program, and smile.
Steve Selengut Article Source:
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: “The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read”, and “A Millionaire’s Secret Investment Strategy”